Business and Market News – Top Headlines & Key Events to Watch

Good morning! This is your India Business Morning Brief for October 28, 2025 and its a data-heavy start to the week with growth predictions increasing, new regulations coming, and a lot of data for the markets to digest before the market opens. So, let’s get into it.

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Top Headlines

IMF upgrades India’s growth forecast for FY26 to 6.6%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded India’s growth forecast for FY2025–26 to 6.6% from 6.4% for the first time. The latest World Economic Outlook report notes that India continues to be one of the fastest-growing major economies even in the backdrop of higher tariffs and slowing demand in advanced economies.

The IMF has attributed the growth to strong domestic consumption and a reviving manufacturing and resilient services sector. India’s economy is growing in the face of trade tensions. The internal demand is strong enough to keep the economy humming.

Economists polled by Reuters also lifted their expectations to 6.7% for FY26 from 6.6% last month on the back of optimistic tax collections, stable rupee, and government infrastructure spending.

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SEBI proposes new incentives to attract retail investors to debt markets

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has released a discussion paper suggesting tax incentives and the provision of easer interfaces for retail investors to acquire corporate bonds and government securities in the primary market and for the direct purchase of government securities.

This action comes as foreign investors conduct portfolio reallocations towards the U.S. The $17 billion currently estimated as foreign outflows this year is the result of such reallocations. SEBI is focusing on the domestic investor base and undercuts reliance on institutional capital.

If this passes, the new system will roll out in Q1 2026 at the earliest which will allow individuals the opportunity to branch out to other forms of investments in addition to equities. SEBI will facilitate this with the public comment system which is expected to go live sometime today and will be open for closure in mid-November.

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Exports stay strong despite global headwinds

The Finance Ministry’s trade report for September, published late Monday, noted that for the first half of FY26, India’s goods and services exports increased by 4.4% compared to the previous year, reaching USD 413.3 billion.

Given the circumstances of global demand contraction and logistical shipping challenges, this is an impressive increase. However, the Ministry noted that heightened protectionist measures in advanced economies will likely constrain exports in the months to come.

Higher exports were recorded in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods, while exports of gemstones and textiles were stagnant.

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Markets steady after a strong week; foreign flows remain muted

After six straight days of gains, markets took a breather on Monday.

• The BSE Sensex closed at 84,633.85, up 0.5%.

• The Nifty50 closed at 25,950, up 0.51%.

• Broader indices also held firm — Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.4%, while Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.3%.

Banking and auto stocks led the rally, while IT shares saw mild profit-taking.

Foreign portfolio investors continued to remain cautious. According to exchange data, FPIs have withdrawn about ₹1.4 lakh crore (≈US $17 billion) from Indian equities since January 2025. The focus now shifts to how SEBI’s retail bond proposal might stabilize domestic participation.

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Corporate & Policy Watch — October 28, 2025

On the macro and regulatory fronts, today is quite hectic. There are a number of planned events that could establish the tone for the week:

• 8:30 AM : RBI Data Release: Weekly credit and deposit growth figures will be released by the Reserve Bank of India. After the slowdown last quarter, this will be closely watched for indications of a lending pickup.

• 10:00 AM : SEBI Press Briefing: The regulator will release its discussion paper on retail participation in the debt market. Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch is expected to address key features at a media interaction around 10:15 AM.

• 11:30 AM : Finance Ministry Trade Report: Officials will share detailed September trade and export data, followed by a short briefing on the ministry’s monthly economic report.

• 4:00 PM : It is anticipated that major corporations such as Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, and Tata Motors will release their Q2 results after market hours.

These figures will be examined by investors to determine how domestic demand and margins are faring in the face of global softness.

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Today’s Business Calendar — October 28, 2025

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Why This Matters

• The IMF and private economists’ growth upgrade shows that they are confident in India’s fundamentals, particularly the recovery of manufacturing and domestic demand.

• Small investors now have the opportunity to earn consistent returns outside of mutual funds and stocks thanks to SEBI’s retail investor plan, which has the potential to revolutionise the debt markets.

• Even if it is modest, export momentum indicates that India’s manufacturing story is far from over.

• The market will be looking for hints regarding credit growth, margins, and consumer demand – all important indicators going into the next quarter as earnings and RBI data are scheduled for today.

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That wraps up your India Business Morning Brief for October 14, 2025.  I’ll see you with the upcoming Morning Brief tomorrow with how markets moved, winners & losers, and key takeaways. Stay tuned, and feel free to share this with your readers.

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References

• Reuters – IMF raises India’s growth forecast for FY2025-26 to 6.6%

• Reuters – Indian economy expected to grow 6.7% this fiscal year

• Reuters – SEBI proposes incentives to boost retail participation in debt market

• Business Today – Finance Ministry warns of global trade headwinds but sees India steady

• Economic Times – Market Live Updates, October 27, 2025

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